Sports betting is one of the most enjoyable forms of gambling, and as such, it should be enjoyed alongside or combined with a good system that ensures you get the best return on your investment. If you’re looking to become a more successful bettor or simply want some help while attempting to make even money from gambling, you MUST know what value betting is. This piece will cover what sports betting value is, why it is important for ongoing winning, and how professional bettors find and take advantage of value opportunities through the identification of some historically Super Bowl relevant examples to further underscore these points.
What is Sports Betting Value?
Improve your sports betting skills :- Value betting is the concept that an event has higher chances to happen than the odds you are being given by the bookmaker. Put simply, if a bet offers more profit than the true likelihood of it occurring, then its value exists.
For instance, a sportsbook may have a team at +200 odds to win a game. However, after you study the matchup, you may think that they have closer to maybe a 50% chance (closer to even money). If you bet this team, you are getting value because the line is more favorable than it should be according to what your odds of winning really are.
Becoming adept at how to increase your sports betting skills has a lot to do with spotting these value bets. If you know how to consistently look for value, then you can become more intelligent with those bets and have a greater chance of profiting in the long run.
Why Is Value Betting So Important For Long-Term Success?
One of the most difficult aspects of any sports betting endeavor is finding long-lasting success. You can indeed have lucky days, but if you are aiming for long-term profits, you need to find value bets. In the long term, books have an edge, so you should be losing money if you are not locating value constantly.
You’ll also need to value bet on your strong hands, as you don’t want opponents drawing on you for free (even if some might get there regardless). Betting against value opportunities is a way to steer clear of betting on the very best teams (the public darlings), which are likewise habitually overvalued by sportsbooks. You can get an edge on both the sportsbooks and your fellow bettors by laying a bet on underdogs or any other less obvious selections whenever you’re offered odds that appear to be offering great value.
Experienced value bettors know that betting isn’t about making the right pick all the time — it’s about making choices that, on balance over time, will turn a profit.
How Sharp Bettors Find Value in Sports Betting
Professional sports gamblers are very good at finding value betting situations. Here’s how they hone their sports betting skills and make sure to place profitable bets on a regular basis:
- Research and Data Analysis: One of the main keys to value betting is good research. They also make intensive analysis into other things like the form of the team, injuries, player and weather conditions, head-to-head stats, etc. This data allows them to calculate what the true probability of an outcome is and then compare that against the sportsbook odds.
- Interpreting Odds Movement: Market movements can come as a result of betting patterns or news. Sportsbooks frequently change the odds when they believe that too many bettors are selecting one side of the game. Sharps monitor these market movements, searching for situations where the public has wielded its influence and distorted lines in a way that now offers value.
- Fading the Public: The public has a strong say on betting markets. Sportsbooks will adjust the odds when they become heavily bet, to encourage betting on one side. Sharps will frequently bet against the public whenever they believe that the odds are skewed too much in favor of a popular team, which leads to value on the other side.
- Statistical Models: A lot of pros use statistical models and algorithms to forecast the game results. These models incorporate multiple data points, including player statistics and past results. Professionals are able to use their model predictions and compare it with the odds currently being offered to spot where sportsbooks have made mistakes (and then get a great line) by playing value bets.
Super Bowl Case: This is What Value Betting Looks Like
In the past, the Super Bowl has offered up a few value sports bets. In the next two examples, we will consider games where professional bettors saw value in underdog teams:
Bayern Munich Vs. Frankfurt
As a German team whose reputation is built upon walloping the opposition, Bayern Munich, on home soil against Eintracht Frankfurt, easily slipped by under the radar of most punters – until a crack contingent unearthed some eye-watering odds and reaped the rewards of their faith. Yes, that footie fiend who just can’t resist plonking £5 on AC Milan every weekend because ‘you never know’ was probably too busy laying overpriced MEBO bets to notice that one of Europe’s biggest outfits had somehow fallen into 200/1 territory.
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons, Super Bowl LI (2017)
In this particularly unforgettable Super Bowl 51, the New England Patriots fought back from a 25-point deficit to win against the Atlanta Falcons in an overtime victory that ended with a score of 34-28. In the case of when they were behind, professional gamblers who saw value in the Patriots’ odds capitalized. Though the public was dazzled by the Falcons’ commanding lead and piled up money on their side, value bettors understood that surely a team with Tom Brady at quarterback and a history of success would have an excellent opportunity to come back. It was a classic case of value betting, in which the odds for the Patriots were better than their likelihood of winning at that stage in the game.
Super Bowl XLII (2008): New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
The New York Giants were giant underdogs in Super Bowl XLII against the undefeated New England Patriots. Most square bettors were loading up on the Patriots, but a few were taking their +3 or +2.5 and placing bets on the Giants to win the game straight up. The underdog Giants won the contest 17-14. The result was a big windfall to anyone who recognized its value.
In both instances, value sports betting provided the answer and guided us towards niches worth investing in. Professional bettors, meanwhile, didn’t care about bitter public perceptions (though if they did, they’d know that most of the viewing audience took their sentiment with a grain of salt). Instead of bucking underestimation or betting on overestimated favorites by the market and/or expert pools, this group researched games and looked for how best to exploit available value.
Conclusion: Get Better at Sports Betting with Value-Based Thinking
To enhance your sports gambling understanding and find value in sports betting, you can optimize your long-term profitability by concentrating on bets in which the odds are mispriced. This method includes research, monitoring market movements, and betting intelligently — not just based on intuition or favorite teams.
As long as you learn to recognize value and continue making informed decisions, you’re on your way to a more profitable betting life. If you are an aspiring bettor, advancing to that elite level, mastering the skill of value betting may be the most important factor for sustained success. And as we can see from the history of Super Bowl betting, you have to know who and what to bet on at the right time and place.
